Could September finally bring some relief?
There are several important economic developments coming in September that could influence mortgage rates. An inflation report is scheduled for September 11, unemployment numbers will be released earlier in the month, and the Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet September 15–16.
Any one of these developments could affect the direction of mortgage rates—and potentially create a short window of opportunity for buyers or homeowners looking to refinance.
That's especially important in a market like San Diego, where even a relatively small change in mortgage rates can make a meaningful difference in monthly payments and purchasing power.
Mortgage rates improved by more than a percentage point during 2025, but much of that improvement was reversed in 2026. In recent months, purchase and refinance rates have remained frustratingly stubborn.
So, could September be different?
There's no way to know for certain. Mortgage rates can change daily based on economic and financial market conditions. But there are three things worth watching closely as September approaches.
Three things to consider now
Trying to predict exactly where mortgage rates will be a month from now is nearly impossible. Rates are influenced by a long list of economic and global factors, including some that can change with little warning.
That doesn't mean buyers and homeowners should simply sit back and wait. Instead, it makes sense to understand the major factors that could influence rates in September. If conditions improve, there could be a temporary opportunity to secure a more favorable mortgage rate.
Here are three things to watch.
Geopolitical tensions and overseas conflicts
Mortgage rates don't move solely because of decisions made by the Federal Reserve. Global events can have a significant impact, too.
On March 2, the average 30-year mortgage rate was 5.75%—nearly a full percentage point below what many buyers were being offered more recently. The increase wasn't simply the result of a Federal Reserve decision. Geopolitical tensions, overseas conflicts and the war with Iran contributed to higher oil prices and renewed inflation concerns.
That matters because changes in oil prices and inflation can influence the broader financial markets that ultimately affect mortgage rates. If geopolitical tensions ease in September, it's possible that some of the pressure on rates could ease as well.
That doesn't necessarily mean mortgage rates will suddenly fall dramatically. Any improvement could be small or short-lived. But for a San Diego buyer trying to make the numbers work, even a modest improvement could matter.
The takeaway: Pay attention to the news, but don't try to time the market perfectly. If rates improve and the numbers work for you, being prepared to act could be more important than waiting for the absolute lowest rate.
Further reductions in the inflation rate
Inflation will be another major piece of the September puzzle.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release its August inflation report on September 11. If inflation continues to move lower, as it did in the July report, it could increase expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut rates later in the month.
But there's an important distinction here:
Mortgage rates don't have to wait for the Fed.
Mortgage lenders can adjust their rates based on market conditions and expectations. So, if the September inflation report comes in better than expected, mortgage rates could respond before the Federal Reserve actually makes a move.
For San Diego buyers, that means preparation matters.
If you're hoping to purchase a home this fall, now is the time to make sure your finances are as strong as possible. Improving your credit score, reducing debt where possible and getting your financing in order can help put you in a better position if a more attractive rate becomes available.
You don't want to discover that a better rate appeared and then realize you're not ready to take advantage of it.
The Federal Reserve meeting later in the month
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet September 15 and 16.
By then, officials will have new inflation and unemployment data to consider, along with whatever is happening with geopolitical tensions around the world.
An actual rate cut at this meeting may currently seem unlikely, but that doesn't mean the meeting is irrelevant to mortgage rates. What Federal Reserve officials say can matter almost as much as what they actually do. If their comments suggest that future rate cuts are becoming more likely, financial markets could respond—and mortgage rates could move lower as a result.
Of course, the opposite is also possible.
That's why it can be risky to make a home-buying decision based entirely on what you think the Fed will do next. For buyers who are already under contract or actively shopping, a mortgage rate lock can provide some protection against rates moving higher. Depending on the loan and lender, there may also be an opportunity to unlock and re-lock at a lower rate if rates improve later.
In other words, you don't necessarily have to choose between locking today and missing out on a future improvement or waiting and risking higher rates. Talk with your lender about what options are available for your specific loan.
The bottom line
Could mortgage rates improve this September?
Absolutely. But there are no guarantees.
After remaining relatively high and stubbornly stuck for much of the summer, several factors could influence where rates go next. Geopolitical tensions, inflation, unemployment data and Federal Reserve policy will all be worth watching. And don't overlook the 10-year Treasury yield, which is another important influence on mortgage rates.
For San Diego homebuyers, the bigger lesson may be this:
Don't build your entire strategy around predicting the next rate move.
Instead, focus on what you can control. Strengthen your credit. Understand your financing options. Know what monthly payment works for your budget. And if you're considering buying, be prepared to move if the right home and the right numbers come together. Mortgage rates will eventually change again. The goal isn't necessarily to predict exactly when. It's to be ready when the opportunity arrives.